11 pm Tuesday Night Weather Update For Western & Central Mass

Based on the latest weather data, it appears that the band of snow that sets up Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening will be much further south and west than previously thought.

It now appears that rain still will initially overspread Western and Central Mass by early Wednesday afternoon. This area of precipitation is then expected to sink southward & change from rain to snow by mid to late afternoon Wednesday. The band of snow by late Wednesday afternoon now looks to stretch from the middle & lower Pioneer Valley of Western Mass east-southeastward to central and especially southern Worcester County. This includes the Worcester Metro, the I-395 corridor, the I-84 corridor and the Route 146 corridor. Northern parts of Worcester County and the upper Pioneer Valley of Western Mass may now miss out on most, if not all of this storm.

The snow then looks to continue into Wednesday evening across the middle and lower Pioneer Valley of Western Mass and central and southern Worcester County before ending around midnight.

Snow amounts now look lower as well with accumulations ranging from nothing across northern Worcester County, including I-190 and Route 2 and across the upper Pioneer Valley of Western Mass to perhaps an inch or so of wet snow across the middle and lower Pioneer Valley of Western Mass and across central and especially southern Worcester County.

Accumulating Snow Is Expected During Wednesday Afternoon & Wednesday Evening Across Western & Central Mass (Issued Early Tuesday Afternoon 2/17/2026)

Accumulating Snow Is Expected During Wednesday Afternoon & Wednesday Evening: A frontal boundary is expected to set up across central and southern New England during Wednesday into Wednesday evening. It is expected that a narrow band of heavier snow is expected to set up on the northern side of this frontal boundary. Where this heavier snow band sets up across the region is going to be very important in determining the sorts of winter weather impacts that will occur during Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening.

The weather forecast guidance continue to fluctuate on where the higher amounts during Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening occur. Some guidance show the higher amounts occurring towards the northern Worcester Hills. Other weather guidance are pointing towards a scenario where the higher snow amounts might occur right near the Mass Pike.

It should be noted that the band of heavier snow where amounts of up to 4 inches will occur is going to be rather narrow & will only be about 25 miles wide. Outside of this band of heavier snow, the snow intensity will be much lighter with amounts of only an inch or two expected.

As you can tell, this is not an easy forecast at all. So, here goes nothing:

I think that we’ll see precipitation start as rain or a rain-snow mix across all of Western and Central Mass during the early afternoon hours of Wednesday. The precipitation then looks to change to all snow from north to south during the mid and late afternoon hours of Wednesday.

This means that the northern Worcester Hills will be first to switch to all snow as early as 2-3 pm Wednesday afternoon. The changeover to all snow will then continue pushing south reaching the Mass Pike by about 5 pm or so Wednesday afternoon.

The snow is then expected to continue through all of Wednesday evening before it comes to an end just after midnight.

You can find my forecast snow map for Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening attached to this post. As you can see, I think the highest amounts of snow will probably occur in the area near and especially north of Route 9. That being said, any small shifts to the north or south in where the band of heavier snow sets up will lead to big changes in the snow forecast.

This is going to be a wet and heavy snow & because of this, roads will likely be quite slick, especially during the very late afternoon and evening hours of Wednesday. This means that this storm will affect the afternoon and especially the evening commute & because of this, extreme caution needs to be exercised if you will be commuting.

Finally, I haven’t forgotten about storm number 2, which is expected during Friday and Friday evening or about storm number 3, which looks to occur from Sunday afternoon through Monday. Both storms have the potential to bring winter weather impacts to the entire area.

Storm Number 2 - The storm on Friday and Friday evening looks to bring a few inches of snow to much of the area. It should be noted that areas south of the Mass Pike may see the snow mix with sleet and rain.

Storm Number 3 - As for the storm that could occur from Sunday afternoon through Monday – I do think that we are going to really need to watch this storm very closely. While the weather forecast guidance seem to be gradually trending towards a significant snowstorm with this one, I’m not quite ready to bite on that idea. I mean we are still 5-6 days away from this storm happening & a lot can and will change with the forecast of this storm.

What we do know right now is that a low pressure system may rapidly strengthen as it tracks near or east of the Cape and Nantucket. How close this storm comes to our area will dictate how big of a storm this is.

What isn’t known yet about the storm from Sunday afternoon through Monday is the exact track of the low pressure system. A further offshore track would lead to a light to moderate sized snowfall. On the other hand, if this low pressure becomes really intense and tracks near the Cape and Nantucket, it would mean we would be in for a major snowstorm that comes with a lot of wind.

At this point, it is far too soon to say with any sort of certainty how big of a storm this might be. This storm, however, does really need to be watched closely as there is the very real potential for it to be a pretty significant storm.

My advice is the same as yesterday – Let’s get through the storm 1 and storm 2 first before we really start taking a very close look at the Sunday afternoon through Monday storm. Also, don’t get bent out of shape & cancel plans after looking at the social media posts warning you of a big blizzard for Sunday into next Monday. In reality, no one can say with any certainty how big or how small of a storm we’ll see Sunday afternoon through Monday. Could it be a big snowstorm? Absolutely!! Could it also be a nothing burger? Also, absolutely.

It Looks Like We’re In For A Very Active Winter Weather Pattern From Wednesday Through Next Monday Across Western & Central Mass

For Tonight: Generally cloudy skies can be expected during tonight. Low temperatures will be between 20 and 25 Degrees. Winds will be West at 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday: A weak weather disturbance is expected to cross the region during Tuesday morning. This disturbance looks to have just enough moisture and energy to produce some scattered snow showers across the region throughout Tuesday morning. Little or no snow accumulation is expected from any snow showers that do occur.

Skies will then remain cloudy during Tuesday afternoon.

High temperatures will be around 40 Degrees. Winds will be West to Southwest at 6 to 12 mph.

A Very Active Winter Weather Pattern Sets Up From Wednesday Through Next Monday: The time period from Wednesday through next Monday looks very active as there is the potential for three separate storm systems to affect the area. All three storm systems do have the potential to bring winter weather impacts to all of Western Mass. The first storm system looks to occur on Wednesday; the second storm looks to occur on Friday & Friday night & the third storm system may impact the area late Sunday into next Monday. Now, let’s go over each separate storm threat:

Wednesday’s Storm Threat: A frontal boundary is expected to set up somewhere across central or southern New England. Where this frontal boundary sets up is going to be extremely important in determining not only precipitation type over Western and Central Mass, but also how heavy the precipitation will be. The weather forecast guidance shows a variety of different outcomes & this is leading to a highly uncertain & low confidence weather forecast for Wednesday.

Some of the weather forecast guidance such as the GFS and NAM models are showing the frontal boundary to set up right across Southern New England, which would lead to 3 to 5 inches of wet, heavy snow to occur during Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Other weather forecast guidance such as the Canadian model and the European model forecast the frontal boundary to set up over central New England, which would lead to rain during the day on Wednesday that changes to snow by Wednesday evening.

Not an easy forecast at all!!

My thinking right now is that for areas in the Pioneer Valley of Western Mass & areas near and south of the Mass Pike, we may see rain or a rain-snow mix starting late Wednesday morning and continuing through Wednesday afternoon before it changes to all snow before it ends Wednesday evening. Snow amounts across these areas may end up averaging around a slushy inch or two.

For those of you north of the Mass Pike & especially areas in the northern Worcester Hills, this could end up being mostly all snow that is wet and heavy. Snow begins late Wednesday morning and continues through Wednesday afternoon before it ends Wednesday evening. Snow amounts of 2 to 4 inches look possible across these areas.

That being said, any small shifts in the position of the frontal boundary will significant change this forecast. I cannot completely rule out an all snow event with amounts of 3 to 5 inches across the entire area should the frontal boundary shift further south. It’s definitely a forecast you will need to monitor very closely.

Friday & Friday Night’s Storm Threat: After a quiet Thursday, the next storm system to watch will arrive on Friday. An area of low pressure is expected to pass near the south coast of New England during later Friday and Friday night. This storm could bring a round of snow to the entire area during Friday and Friday night. Latest weather forecast guidance seems to point towards this being a plowable snowfall with amounts of 3 to 6 inches quite possible. It’s definitely a storm to watch very closely.

Sunday Through Monday’s Storm Threat: This is the storm that is getting posted a lot already on social media due to the GFS model forecasting a full-blown blizzard. I say let’s slow things down & not hype this storm. While there are decent signals in the data that support the possibility of a significant to major winter storm from Sunday through next Monday, there is also compelling evidence in the data that would support a much smaller snowfall. Besides we have two other storms this week that really need our attention first.

What is known right now about Sunday and Monday’s storm is that a low pressure system may rapidly strengthen as it tracks near or east of the Cape and Nantucket. How close this storm comes to our area will dictate how big of a storm this is. Also, the closer the storm is to our area the more wind we would see – this is why the GFS model is showing a blizzard for next Monday.

What isn’t known yet about Sunday and Monday’s storm is the exact track of the low pressure system. Some guidance show a further offshore track which would lend to a light to moderate sized snowfall. Other guidance, as I already mentioned, show a much closer approach to our area in terms of storm track & thus would lead to a major snowstorm with a lot of wind.

At this point, it is way too soon to really say how big of a storm this might be. This storm, however, does really need to be watched closely as there is the very real potential for it to be a pretty significant storm.

My advice is let’s get through the two storms that are expected this week before we really start taking a very close look at the Sunday & Monday storm. Also, don’t get bent out of shape & cancel plans after looking at the social media posts warning you of a big blizzard for Sunday into next Monday. In reality, no one can say with any certainty how big or how small of a storm we’ll see Sunday into next Monday.