For This Afternoon & Tonight: A big high pressure system will control the weather throughout this afternoon and tonight.
Sunny to partly sunny skies can be expected throughout this afternoon. Temperatures will be between 60 and 65 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 10 to 15 mph.
Clear skies can be expected throughout tonight. Low temperatures will be around 45 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at around 10 mph.
Wednesday Through Thursday: That high pressure system will continue to control the weather throughout all of Wednesday and all of Thursday. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure is expected to take shape offshore of the North Carolina coast by late Wednesday. This low pressure system is expected to strengthen as it slowly moves northward reaching near the south coast of New England by this weekend. It is looking increasingly more likely that this strong storm system will produce rainy and windy conditions across all of Western and Central Mass beginning on Friday and lasting through this weekend. More on this later in this forecast….
Wednesday is expected to be partly sunny with high temperatures around 60 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday night looks clear to partly cloudy with low temperatures between 40 and 45 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at around 10 mph.
Thursday is expected to be sunny to partly sunny with high temperatures around 65 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 10 to 15 mph.
A Coastal Storm May Bring Rain & Windy Conditions From Friday Through This Weekend: It is looking increasingly more likely that a strong coastal storm will impact our area beginning on Friday and continuing through the weekend. These impacts will include rain, which may be heavy at times and windy conditions with wind gusts of over 40 mph possible at times. That being said, there is still some uncertainty as to where exactly this storm system will track relative to our area.
A look at the latest weather forecast guidance reveals that most weather guidance now shows this storm tracking northwestward reaching near the south coast of New England and the Cape by the weekend. This type of storm track would lead to a prolonged period of rain and windy conditions across all of Western and Central Mass from Friday through all of this weekend. That being said, there are still some weather guidance members such as the GFS model that shows a more offshore track, which would lead to little or no impacts for our area.
I do think that the weather forecast guidance like the GFS model showing the more offshore track is an outlier & instead, I’m leaning much more towards the idea that this low pressure system will be blocked by the big high pressure system over Quebec province & thus will sit and spin near the south coast of New England and near the Cape throughout this weekend.
Even though it is looking more likely that we’re going to be impacted by this storm, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty to the forecast. Because of this, the forecast for the weekend needs to be monitored extremely closely, especially where it looks like a wind-swept heavy rain will occur for at least a couple of days between Friday and Sunday.
So, Here Is My Forecast From Friday Through This Weekend:
Friday will be cloudy. In addition, I do think that rain will overspread the entire area during the afternoon. It will also be windy on Friday with northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of up to 40 mph. High temperatures will be around 60 Degrees.
Rain is then expected throughout all of Friday night and it will be windy. Low temperatures will be between 45 and 50 Degrees. Northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of up to 40 mph are expected.
Rain is expected all day Saturday and the rain may be heavy at times. It will also continue to be windy with northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of up to 40 mph. High temperatures will be around 60 Degrees.
It appears that rain will continue throughout all of Saturday night and Sunday and the rain could be heavy at times. Additionally, it will continue to be windy throughout Saturday night and Sunday with northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of up to 35-40 mph. Low temperatures Saturday night will be around 45 Degrees. High temperatures will be between 60 and 65 Degrees.
So, how much rain might occur with the weekend storm? Right now, I think that rain totals could range from around one inch across Western Mass to somewhere between 1 and 2 inches of total rainfall with locally higher amounts across Central Mass. Given the uncertainty with the exact track of the storm system, these rain totals may need to be adjusted in upcoming forecasts.
Bottom line is that I urge everyone to keep up-to-date with the latest forecasts as they will likely change in the coming days. Many more updates will be posted as needed.
