Tuesday Evening Weather Update Concerning The Heavy Rain & Potential Flood Threat For Western & Central Mass On Wednesday & Wednesday Evening

I am becoming increasingly more concerned that we are going to see flooding from a lot of rain that falls during the day on Wednesday right through Wednesday night. Weather forecast guidance have been trending all day towards a scenario that produces widespread rain totals of 2 to possibly 4 inches with local amounts of upwards of 5 to 6 inches. The areas that I am particularly concerned about in terms of receiving upwards of that 5 to 6 inches of rain are across the Berkshires and across the Worcester Hills where the very moist air is lifted up over the Worcester Hills and the Berkshires and wrung out in the form of very heavy rain.

As of right now, at the time of this post, a line of heavy downpours stretches right across much of the Pioneer Valley of Western Mass. This rain should continue across the Pioneer Valley (especially the middle and upper Pioneer Valley) over the next 2-3 hours before this round of heavy downpours moves out.

It is then expected that a new round of heavy downpours will first overspread Western Mass by very late tonight & then continue through all of Wednesday morning. These heavy downpours will then overspread all of Central Mass during Wednesday morning and then continue into the early afternoon hours of Wednesday.

Additional rounds of heavy downpours are then anticipated to occur across all of Western and Central Mass during the late afternoon hours of Wednesday and during Wednesday evening.

FORECAST RAIN TOTALS: As I already mentioned, I think that we are easily looking at rain totals of 2 to possibly 4 inches across a large part of Western and Central Mass with most of this rain occurring during the day on Wednesday and during Wednesday evening.

Additionally, the combination of a very humid environment, lots of energy and forcing from the strong low pressure system and a east and southeasterly wind flow will all cause a lot of rain to be wrung out in the Worcester Hills and across the Berkshires during Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Because of this, it is not out of the realm of possibilities that upwards of 5 to 6 inches of rain could accumulate in these areas. Additionally, I have concerns that we will see heavy downpours and thunderstorms continually move over the same areas & this could exacerbate the heavy rain situation. Because of this, flooding is now a big concern during the day on Wednesday & during Wednesday night across the Berkshires and across the Worcester Hills. This flooding will include street flooding, highway flooding, poor drainage flooding and flooding of low-lying areas. Additionally, flooding of streams and small rivers are now a growing concern for the Berkshires and the Worcester Hills.

It goes without saying that I will be monitoring the heavy rainfall & potential flood threat extremely closely for Wednesday and Wednesday night & will have frequent updates as needed.

A Widespread 1 To 3 Inches Of Rain With Local Amounts Of Up To 4 Inches Will Produce Localized Flooding From Very Late Tonight Through Wednesday & Wednesday Night Across Western & Central Mass

For This Afternoon: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a threat throughout this afternoon across all of Western and Central Mass. While the scattered thunderstorms are expected to not be strong or severe, they will be capable of producing heavy downpours and lightning.

Temperatures throughout this afternoon will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. It will be humid with dew point temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 Degrees. Winds will be South at 10 to 15 mph.

Widespread 1 To 3 Inch Rainfall Amounts With Local Amounts Of Up To 4 Inches Are Expected From Very Late Tonight Through Wednesday & Wednesday Night: A fairly strong low pressure system for this time of year is expected to bring rain to the entire area starting very late tonight and then continuing through all of Wednesday and all of Wednesday night. Bands of heavy rain are expected to rotate through the region at times leading to locally excessive rain amounts & the threat for flooding. It should also be noted that some rain is likely to persist through Thursday, although the rain intensity is likely to be much lighter.

A few showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two is expected to persist during this evening. By the very late night hours of tonight into the predawn hours of Wednesday, it is expected that widespread showers with periods of heavy rain & maybe a thunderstorm or two will move into the area. The periods of heavy rain that do occur may produce localized flooding, especially in low-lying areas and areas of poor drainage. Low temperatures tonight will be around 60 Degrees. Winds will be Southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Both Wednesday and Wednesday night are expected to be very wet across all of Western and Central Mass. Widespread showers with periods of heavy rain are expected throughout the entire day on Wednesday. These widespread showers with periods of heavy rain are expected to continue through all of Wednesday night. Additionally, some embedded isolated thunderstorms can be expected from time to time during Wednesday and Wednesday night, which may enhance the rainfall even more. The periods of heavy rain will lead to localized flooding, especially in low-lying areas & areas of poor drainage. The potential for heavy rain at times will make both the morning and the afternoon/evening commutes a mess due to the heavy rain producing poor visibility & street & highway flooding.

High temperatures on Wednesday will be around 70 Degrees. Dew point temperatures will be in the mid 60s. Winds will be East at 10 to 15 mph.

Low temperatures on Wednesday night will be around 60 Degrees. Winds will be East to Northeast at around 10 mph.

Forecast Rain Totals: All-in-all, it appears that widespread 1 to 3 inch rainfall amounts can be expected across all of Western and Central Mass from very late tonight through Wednesday & Wednesday night.

It also appears that local rainfall amounts of up to 4 inches is a possibility in areas that see repeated bands of heavy to very heavy rain during Wednesday and Wednesday night. Where exactly the repeating bands of heavy to very heavy rain set up is something that’ll need to be watched extremely closely as if we see an extended period where it rains really hard over one area, we could have problems in terms of flooding.

For now though, I do think that localized flooding is very likely during Wednesday and Wednesday night across all of Western and Central Mass. This localized flooding should take the form of street and highway flooding & the flooding of low-lying areas & areas of poor drainage. Again, we are really going to have to keep an eye on the possibility of more significant flooding should we see repeating bands of heavy to very heavy rain over the same areas.

Thursday & Friday: It is expected that the low pressure system will very slowly move away & because of this showers are likely to continue through all day Thursday & perhaps even into Friday.

Thursday is expected to be cloudy & there will be scattered showers around throughout the day. High temperatures will be between 70 and 75 Degrees. Dew point temperatures will be in the low 60s. Winds will be North at 10 to 15 mph.

Friday looks to feature a mixture of sunshine and clouds. In addition, some isolated showers are possible from time to time during the afternoon. High temperatures will be between 75 and 80 Degrees. Dew point temperatures will be in the low 60s.

FINALLY - I wanted to let everyone know that my wife, Meg, has a eBay store where she has begun selling Nintendo Switch & Switch 2 games, Nintendo DS games and Nintendo Game Boy Color games. Additionally, she will be adding more retro games in the coming days. Not only that, she is also selling books & even a couple of brand new bottles of Bath & Body Works. I hope you will check it out as all sales will go towards paying our mortgage and our car payment.

LINK TO MEG's eBAY STORE - https://www.ebay.com/usr/justonemeg .

2 To 3 Inches Of Rain Will Produce Localized Flooding From Tuesday Night Through Wednesday & Wednesday Night Across Western & Central Mass

For The Rest Of This Afternoon: A mixture of sunshine and clouds is expected throughout the rest of this afternoon. In addition, radar imagery at the time of this post indicated that thunderstorms have developed across the Berkshires. Some of this thunderstorm activity may spill into the Pioneer Valley by about the 2 to 3 pm time frame. Further east, while it’s possible one or two of these thunderstorms could make it as far east as the western Worcester Hills, I think that a majority of Central Mass should be dry this afternoon.

Temperatures throughout the rest of this afternoon will be in the mid 80s. Dew point temperatures will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds will be South to Southwest at 5 to 10 mph.

Tonight: Any leftover scattered thunderstorms, mostly over Western Mass will end by early this evening. The rest of tonight is expected to be partly cloudy with low temperatures around 60 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 5 to 10 mph.

Rain, Some Of Which Will Be Quite Heavy In Intensity Is Expected From Tuesday Night Through Thursday: A fairly strong low pressure system for this time of year is expected to form along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Tuesday night and then move northeastward during Wednesday and Wednesday night reaching near the Cape by Thursday. This storm system is expected to bring a prolonged period of rain, some of it quite heavy in intensity, to all of Western and Central Mass from Tuesday night through Wednesday and Wednesday night. In fact, the rain with this storm system is likely to continue through all of Thursday.

Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are expected from this upcoming storm across all of Western and Central Mass. Local amounts of up to 4 inches are a distinct possibility, especially across Western Mass. This will probably lead to localized flooding during Tuesday night and Wednesday when the heaviest rain is likely to occur.

Tuesday is expected to be cloudy throughout the day. It is appears that some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will occur during the afternoon. At this point, most of this activity should occur across Western Mass, but a few showers or thunderstorms may try to push into Central Mass by late in the day. High temperatures Tuesday will be between 75 and 80 Degrees. Dew point temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s. Winds will be South at 10 to 15 mph.

Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are expected during Tuesday evening. As we get into the after midnight hours of Tuesday night, it appears that we’ll see widespread showers with periods of heavy rain & perhaps a thunderstorm or two. The periods of heavy rain that do occur may produce localized flooding, especially in low-lying areas and areas of poor drainage. Low temperatures will be around 60 Degrees. Winds will be Southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday looks to be a very wet day across the entire area. Widespread showers with periods of heavy rain are expected throughout the day. In addition, some embedded isolated thunderstorms can be expected, which may enhance the rainfall even more. The periods of heavy rain will lead to localized flooding, especially in low-lying areas & areas of poor drainage. The potential for heavy rain at times will make both the morning and the afternoon/evening commutes a mess due to the heavy rain producing poor visibility & street & highway flooding. High temperatures will be around 70 Degrees. Dew point temperatures will be in the mid 60s. Winds will be East at 10 to 15 mph.

Widespread showers are expected to continue through all of Wednesday night and all of Thursday. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be will be around 60 Degrees. High temperatures Thursday will be near 70 Degrees. Dew point temperatures will be around 65 Degrees.

As I mentioned earlier, it appears that total rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches can be expected across all of Western and Central Mass from Tuesday night through Wednesday & Wednesday night. Local amounts of up to 4 inches are a strong possibility. Most of this rain is expected to occur from the predawn hours of Wednesday morning through the entire day on Wednesday.

Friday: That strong low pressure system will finally pull away from the region as we get into Friday. Still though, we may end up with more clouds than sunshine on Friday. In addition, an isolated shower or two is a possibility during the afternoon. High temperatures will be between 75 and 80 Degrees. Dew point temperatures will be in the low 60s.