A Few Severe Thunderstorms Are Possible This Afternoon Across Western & Central Mass

I am going to be watching things very closely for the possibility of a couple to a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly between about 3 pm and 6 pm or so, across all of Western and Central Mass.

Satellite imagery as of late this morning revealed that we are socked in with clouds across the entire area. Radar imagery indicated that there are still a few showers around as of the time of this post.

It is expected that these showers should come to an end by about 1 pm. In addition, there may be some breaks in the clouds allowing for some sunshine to peek through for a while this afternoon. This will lead to temperatures to rise well up into the upper 70s to near 80 Degrees by early to mid-afternoon. Dew point temperatures will be in the mid 60s to near 70 Degrees leading things to feel very humid during this afternoon.

The warmth and humid conditions this afternoon will lead to the atmosphere to become somewhat unstable. In addition, there is expected to be very strong amounts of wind shear present in the atmosphere. This combination will lead to conditions that are favorable for at least a couple to a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon across all of Western and Central Mass.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms has already formed across Western New York State. These storms are moving to the east at a forward speed of about 45 mph.

It is anticipated that the line of thunderstorms will reach Western Mass by about 3 pm or so this afternoon. This line of thunderstorms will then push across Central Mass by about 4 pm or so this afternoon.

I want to make it clear that I AM NOT expecting a widespread severe weather outbreak this afternoon. Instead, I do think that a couple to perhaps a few of the thunderstorms will be severe and capable of producing wind gusts of up to 65 mph, torrential downpours and frequent lightning. Given the very strong wind shear that's present, there is the possibility for a couple of tornadoes to be produced by any severe thunderstorms.

While all of Western and Central Mass are at risk this afternoon of a couple to a few severe thunderstorms, the area I think that has a higher chance for severe thunderstorms is from much of Western Mass into areas of Central Mass that are north of the Mass Pike.

All of the thunderstorm activity will be done across Western and Central Mass by about 6 pm or so.

It goes without saying that I will be keeping very close tabs on the severe weather potential & will have many more updates for you as needed.

Some Scattered Thunderstorms Are Possible Thursday Afternoon Across Western & Central Mass

The main reason for this weather update is that I wanted to give you the latest regarding the potential weather for Thursday.

A mixture of sunshine and clouds can be expected throughout the rest of This Afternoon. Temperatures will be near 80 Degrees with dew point temperatures rising from the upper 40s into the lower 50s. Winds will be South to Southwest at around 10 mph.

Tonight looks to start out partly cloudy, but will become cloudy after midnight as a warm front approaches the area. Some scattered showers can be expected during the predawn hours of Thursday morning.

Low temperatures will be between 55 and 60 Degrees. Winds will be South to Southwest at around 10 mph.

Turning To Thursday: The weather for Thursday afternoon is something that’ll need to be watched closely in terms of how active the thunderstorms may be.

That warm front is expected to push through the region during Thursday morning bringing with it fairly widespread showers throughout Thursday morning. It is expected that the warm front will be to our east by early Thursday afternoon leaving our area in a warm and very humid air mass during Thursday afternoon.

The question then becomes how unstable the air mass might get during Thursday afternoon. This is important because the atmosphere is expected to be very strongly sheared & any amount of instability could mean big time problems in terms of the severe thunderstorm potential.

Some of the weather forecast guidance are pointing towards temperatures rising to near 80 Degrees by Thursday afternoon with dew point temperatures well up into the 60s. This would lead to an environment that’s favorable for severe storms capable of producing strong wind gusts, torrential downpours and even a tornado or two.

On the other hand, some other just as reliable weather forecast guidance show us not fully getting into the warm sector & thus temperatures remaining in the low 70s during Thursday afternoon. This would lead to the atmosphere remaining capped and stable with any thunderstorms remaining non-severe.

This all means that the forecast for Thursday continues to have a high amount of uncertainty & because of this, it’s something that requires very close monitoring. I highly recommend that you keep checking back for updates on Thursday’s weather.

My Thinking As Of Right Now is that we will probably end up with scattered showers and scattered thunderstorms during Thursday afternoon. I also think that the atmosphere might be just favorable enough for one or two of the thunderstorms to become severe & be capable of producing very gusty winds of up to 60 mph, torrential downpours & maybe even a tornado or two given how strongly sheared the atmosphere will be.

This IS NOT expected to be a widespread severe weather outbreak. Instead, this looks to me to be more of a isolated severe weather threat, but any storms that do become severe will need to be watched extremely closely as they could become quite potent.

High temperatures Thursday afternoon will be between 75 and 80 Degrees. Dew point temperatures during Thursday afternoon will be in the mid to upper 60s. Winds will be South to Southwest at 15 to 20 mph throughout the day on Thursday.

Friday Through This Weekend: A stretch of very nice weather is still expected from Friday through this weekend.

Friday looks partly sunny & much less humid. High temperatures will be near 80 Degrees. Dew point temperatures will be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Saturday looks partly sunny with high temperatures between 75 and 80 Degrees. Dew point temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s.

Sunday also looks partly sunny with high temperatures near 75 Degrees. Dew point temperatures will be between 50 and 55 Degrees.

Turning Much More Humid By Thursday With Scattered Afternoon Thunderstorms Possible Across Western & Central Mass

For Tonight: Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected throughout tonight. Low temperatures will be between 50 and 55 Degrees. Winds will be West at around 10 mph.

Wednesday: A southerly wind flow is expected to set up across the region during Wednesday.

A mixture of sunshine and clouds can be expected throughout the day on Wednesday. High temperatures will be near 80 Degrees. Dew point temperatures will be in the upper 40s to low 50s making things feel comfortable. Winds will be South at 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: I continue to be somewhat concerned about how active Thursday afternoon may get in terms of thunderstorms across the region.

A pretty strong low pressure system for this time of year is expected to track northeastward across Quebec province during the day on Thursday. This will first pull a warm front through the region during Thursday morning causing things to become very humid by Thursday afternoon. A cold front is then expected to sweep through the region during Thursday afternoon.

The air mass out ahead of this cold front will be very strongly sheared, however, there is a large amount of uncertainty as to how unstable the air mass is going to be across the region Thursday afternoon. This is going to be crucial in determining whether we see severe thunderstorms or not Thursday afternoon.

On one hand, it’s possible that we stay socked in with clouds all day Thursday leading to the atmosphere to remain fairly stable. Should this occur, it would mean we might see some scattered showers & maybe a thunderstorm with the cold front during Thursday afternoon. It would also mean that any thunderstorms would not be strong or severe.

On the other hand, it’s equally as possible that we see breaks in the clouds during Thursday afternoon allowing for some partial sunshine. This would allow the atmosphere to become unstable & strongly sheared. Should this occur, it would mean that there could be the potential for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms during Thursday afternoon. Any severe thunderstorms would have the potential to produce strong wind gusts, torrential downpours & the threat for a couple of tornadoes given the strong wind shear that’ll be present.

All-in-all, the forecast for Thursday has a very high amount of uncertainty & it’s going to be something to keep a very close eye on. Definitely keep checking back for updates on Thursday’s weather.

For now, my thinking is that we may end up with scattered showers during Thursday morning with that warm frontal passage. This may be followed by some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during Thursday afternoon. While it’s possible that we may see a strong or severe thunderstorm or two, my thinking right now is that the greater threat for severe storms will be just to our west and southwest from eastern New York southward into the Mid-Atlantic states.

High temperatures Thursday will be around 75 Degrees. It will be quite humid on Thursday with dew point temperatures in the mid to possibly upper 60s. Winds will be South to Southwest at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Friday Through This Weekend: A stretch of very nice weather is expected from Friday through this weekend.

Friday looks partly sunny & much less humid. High temperatures will be near 80 Degrees. Dew point temperatures will be in the low 50s.

Saturday looks partly sunny with high temperatures near 75 Degrees. Dew point temperatures will be around 50 Degrees.

Sunday also looks partly sunny with high temperatures near 75 Degrees. Dew point temperatures will be in the upper 40s.