Weather analysis right now showed a low pressure system forming near the North Carolina coast. This low pressure system is expected to rapidly strengthen and become an intense storm system as it tracks from off of the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight to the southeast of Nantucket by Monday afternoon. This storm system will not only bring heavy amounts of snow, but also will bring strong winds leading to blizzard conditions across much of the area from tonight through all day Monday. The worst part of this storm still looks to be from about the predawn hours of Monday morning through all of Monday morning into early Monday afternoon.
When Is The Snow Expected To Begin? It is expected that the snow will overspread Western and Central Mass from south to north between about 8 pm and 10 pm this evening. The snow will then increase in intensity as the night progresses tonight with heavy snow moving in by about 4 am to 6 am Monday morning.
When Will The Worst Part Of This Storm Be? Heavy to very heavy snow with snow rates of up to 1 to 3 inches per hour is expected to occur beginning about 4 am to 6 am Monday morning. This heavy to very heavy snow is then expected to continue through all of Monday morning and into the very early afternoon hours of Monday. Again, snowfall rates of up to 1 to 3 inches per hour are expected throughout all of Monday morning into the very early afternoon hours of Monday.
I also wouldn’t be surprised to see some isolated thundersnow (snow that’s accompanied by thunder and lightning) between 4 am and midday Monday when it’s snowing extremely hard.
The snow is then expected to be light to occasionally moderate in intensity during the mid and late afternoon hours of Monday.
When Is The Storm Expected To Be Completely Done? The snow is then expected to come to an end between about 8 pm and 11 pm Monday evening.
Forecast Snow Totals: You can find my latest forecast snowfall map for this storm attached to this post. Based on a lot of careful analysis & debating with myself, I decided to increase the snow totals a little across parts of Central Mass, but have left the snow totals the same across Western Mass. The reason why is because I do think that there will be some down sloping and shadowing in the Pioneer Valley of Western Mass & this could lead to a little less in the way of snow amounts as compared to everywhere else.
One other thing that is going to have to be monitored very closely is where exactly the bands of heavy and very heavy snow set up. The reason why is because there will be areas of sinking air right next to these heavy snow bands & this could lead to localized areas of slightly lower snow totals. Unfortunately, this is something that cannot be forecast until the snow bands actually set up.
How Strong Will The Winds Be? In addition to the heavy snow, it is expected to be quite windy tonight and Monday leading to blizzard conditions. Winds tonight will be Northeast at 15 to 20 mph before midnight and Northeast at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40-50 mph after midnight. Winds during the day on Monday will be North at 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 50-plus mph. Winds on Monday night will be Northwest at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40-50 mph before midnight and Northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35-40 mph after midnight.
How Bad Is This Storm Expected To Be? The combination of heavy snow and blizzard conditions tonight and Monday will make for extremely difficult travel conditions. Plow crews are going to have an extremely difficult time keeping up with the very heavy snow accumulations and the very significant amounts of blowing and drifting snow that will occur. Because of this, my advice to you is to stay off of the roads, if it at all possible throughout all of tonight and all of Monday.
Also, this is expected to be a somewhat wet and heavy snow, especially during tonight into Monday morning. This means that the snow will cling to trees and powerlines. The combination of the snow sticking to trees and powerlines & the strong winds will probably lead to downed tree limbs and powerlines causing scattered power outages.
The snow may actually become lighter and fluffier during Monday afternoon & this lighter and fluffier snow will be easily blown and drifted. So, even though the snow intensity will be light to occasionally moderate during Monday afternoon, the blowing and drifting snow will produce low visibilities across the region.
To Sum Everything Up: Snow begins this evening between about 8 pm and 10 pm. The heaviest snow is expected from about 4 am to about 1 pm Monday and extremely difficult travel conditions are expected due to 1 to 3 inch per hour snow rates. Strong winds with gusts of over 50 mph are expected from after midnight tonight through all day Monday. Also, the heavy wet snow will combine with the 50-plus mph wind gusts to produce scattered power outages late tonight through all day Monday.
Many, many more updates on this blizzard will be posted here throughout the storm. Make sure to check back often for the latest updates. DO YOU LIKE & GET A LOT OUT OF THE WEATHER FORECASTS & UPDATES THAT I SEND OUT FOR WESTERN & CENTRAL MASS? WOULD YOU LIKE TO SUPPORT MY WORK? YOU CAN DO THAT BY DONATING USING YOUR CREDIT/DEBIT CARD, PAYPAL OR VENO. HERE'S HOW:
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