It Looks Like We’re In For A Very Active Winter Weather Pattern From Wednesday Through Next Monday Across Western & Central Mass

For Tonight: Generally cloudy skies can be expected during tonight. Low temperatures will be between 20 and 25 Degrees. Winds will be West at 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday: A weak weather disturbance is expected to cross the region during Tuesday morning. This disturbance looks to have just enough moisture and energy to produce some scattered snow showers across the region throughout Tuesday morning. Little or no snow accumulation is expected from any snow showers that do occur.

Skies will then remain cloudy during Tuesday afternoon.

High temperatures will be around 40 Degrees. Winds will be West to Southwest at 6 to 12 mph.

A Very Active Winter Weather Pattern Sets Up From Wednesday Through Next Monday: The time period from Wednesday through next Monday looks very active as there is the potential for three separate storm systems to affect the area. All three storm systems do have the potential to bring winter weather impacts to all of Western Mass. The first storm system looks to occur on Wednesday; the second storm looks to occur on Friday & Friday night & the third storm system may impact the area late Sunday into next Monday. Now, let’s go over each separate storm threat:

Wednesday’s Storm Threat: A frontal boundary is expected to set up somewhere across central or southern New England. Where this frontal boundary sets up is going to be extremely important in determining not only precipitation type over Western and Central Mass, but also how heavy the precipitation will be. The weather forecast guidance shows a variety of different outcomes & this is leading to a highly uncertain & low confidence weather forecast for Wednesday.

Some of the weather forecast guidance such as the GFS and NAM models are showing the frontal boundary to set up right across Southern New England, which would lead to 3 to 5 inches of wet, heavy snow to occur during Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Other weather forecast guidance such as the Canadian model and the European model forecast the frontal boundary to set up over central New England, which would lead to rain during the day on Wednesday that changes to snow by Wednesday evening.

Not an easy forecast at all!!

My thinking right now is that for areas in the Pioneer Valley of Western Mass & areas near and south of the Mass Pike, we may see rain or a rain-snow mix starting late Wednesday morning and continuing through Wednesday afternoon before it changes to all snow before it ends Wednesday evening. Snow amounts across these areas may end up averaging around a slushy inch or two.

For those of you north of the Mass Pike & especially areas in the northern Worcester Hills, this could end up being mostly all snow that is wet and heavy. Snow begins late Wednesday morning and continues through Wednesday afternoon before it ends Wednesday evening. Snow amounts of 2 to 4 inches look possible across these areas.

That being said, any small shifts in the position of the frontal boundary will significant change this forecast. I cannot completely rule out an all snow event with amounts of 3 to 5 inches across the entire area should the frontal boundary shift further south. It’s definitely a forecast you will need to monitor very closely.

Friday & Friday Night’s Storm Threat: After a quiet Thursday, the next storm system to watch will arrive on Friday. An area of low pressure is expected to pass near the south coast of New England during later Friday and Friday night. This storm could bring a round of snow to the entire area during Friday and Friday night. Latest weather forecast guidance seems to point towards this being a plowable snowfall with amounts of 3 to 6 inches quite possible. It’s definitely a storm to watch very closely.

Sunday Through Monday’s Storm Threat: This is the storm that is getting posted a lot already on social media due to the GFS model forecasting a full-blown blizzard. I say let’s slow things down & not hype this storm. While there are decent signals in the data that support the possibility of a significant to major winter storm from Sunday through next Monday, there is also compelling evidence in the data that would support a much smaller snowfall. Besides we have two other storms this week that really need our attention first.

What is known right now about Sunday and Monday’s storm is that a low pressure system may rapidly strengthen as it tracks near or east of the Cape and Nantucket. How close this storm comes to our area will dictate how big of a storm this is. Also, the closer the storm is to our area the more wind we would see – this is why the GFS model is showing a blizzard for next Monday.

What isn’t known yet about Sunday and Monday’s storm is the exact track of the low pressure system. Some guidance show a further offshore track which would lend to a light to moderate sized snowfall. Other guidance, as I already mentioned, show a much closer approach to our area in terms of storm track & thus would lead to a major snowstorm with a lot of wind.

At this point, it is way too soon to really say how big of a storm this might be. This storm, however, does really need to be watched closely as there is the very real potential for it to be a pretty significant storm.

My advice is let’s get through the two storms that are expected this week before we really start taking a very close look at the Sunday & Monday storm. Also, don’t get bent out of shape & cancel plans after looking at the social media posts warning you of a big blizzard for Sunday into next Monday. In reality, no one can say with any certainty how big or how small of a storm we’ll see Sunday into next Monday.

A Little Bit Of Light Snow Will Occur Late Tonight Until About Mid-Morning Monday Across Western & Central Mass

For The Rest Of This Afternoon: Lots of sunshine can be expected throughout the rest of this afternoon. Temperatures will be between 35 and 40 Degrees. Winds will be become East at 5 to 10 mph.

Tonight & Monday Morning: We are watching the progress of two low pressure systems that will affect the weather from late tonight into Monday morning.

The first low pressure system is expected to track off of the North Carolina coast late today. This low pressure system will then pass well to the south of Southern New England by Monday morning. This storm system will be way too far to our south to give us any sort of appreciable snowfall.

The second low pressure system is expected to track across central and northern New England during Monday morning.

It appears that a trough of low pressure will set up and connect these two low pressure systems leading to a little bit of light snow to affect the entire area from late tonight until about mid-morning Monday.

Some intermittent light snow looks to begin across Western and Central Mass just after midnight tonight. This intermittent light snow then looks to continue through sunrise Monday morning before coming to an end by mid-morning Monday.

Any snow accumulations from late tonight until mid-morning Monday will be on the order of a dusting to perhaps about one-half of an inch of snow at the very most. This means that very little in the way of impacts are expected across the entire area & any snow accumulations will occur on vehicles and other non-pavement surfaces.

Monday Afternoon Through Tuesday: Cloudy skies are expected during Monday afternoon with high temperatures between 34 and 39 Degrees. Winds will be East at around 5 mph.

A weak weather disturbance looks to cross the region during late Monday night and Tuesday morning. This weather disturbance looks to produce some scattered snow showers across the region from just after midnight Monday night until about mid-morning Tuesday. Any snow accumulations from the snow showers will be between a dusting to perhaps one-half of an inch or so.

Once the snow showers end by mid-morning Tuesday, skies will remain cloudy through Tuesday afternoon.

Low temperatures Monday night will be around 25 Degrees. High temperatures Tuesday will be around 40 Degrees.

Winds on Monday night will be West to Southwest at 5 to 10 mph. Winds on Tuesday will be Southwest at around 10 mph.

Active Weather Pattern Looks To Set Up From Wednesday Through Next Weekend: As I mentioned a couple of days ago it appears that an active weather pattern will set up across our area beginning on Wednesday and continuing through next weekend.

The cause for this active weather pattern will be a sharp temperature boundary that’s expected to set up over Southern New England. To the north of this boundary will be some pretty cold temperatures found across northern New England and southern Canada. To the south of this boundary will be some pretty warm temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic States and the Southeastern US.

Multiple low pressure systems are expected to track along this temperature boundary & the exact timing of the passing of each low pressure system will make for an overall uncertain forecast from Wednesday through next weekend. One thing that seems likely though is that our area will be stuck right in the middle of a battle zone leading to threats for stormy weather during the middle and later parts of this week as well as during next weekend. That said, it should be emphasized that there will not be continuous precipitation from Wednesday through next Sunday & that there will be some periods of dry weather in-between each individual weather system.

The first low pressure system looks to affect the region during the day on Wednesday. The air mass during the day on Wednesday looks to be very borderline & because of this, there are uncertainties as to whether we will see more snow than rain with this first system. I could easily foresee a scenario where more rain than snow will occur during Wednesday across the Pioneer Valley of Western Mass & across areas near and south of the Mass Pike. For areas north of the Mass Pike & especially across the northern Worcester Hills, the precipitation type could end up being mostly all snow. Given the uncertainties with the forecast on Wednesday, I will be watching it extremely closely.

The second low pressure system is currently expected to affect the region from about later Friday afternoon through Saturday. This second storm will also need to be watched very closely as the temperature profile across the region will be very marginal & thus I could foresee a scenario where mostly all snow occurs in the Worcester Hills and the Berkshires & a messy mixture of snow, ice and rain occurs south of the Mass Pike and across the Pioneer Valley of Western Mass.

And there may even be a third storm system to keep an eye on for around next Monday, February 23. This third storm could have a little more cold air available & thus could produce more in the way of a snow threat.

Some Light Snow May Occur Late Sunday Night Into Monday Morning Across Western & Central Mass, But This Is Something That’ll Need To Be Watched In Case It Trends Towards More Snow Accumulation

For Tonight: The cloud cover and occasional snow flurries that we’re seeing this afternoon will give way to partly cloudy skies by this evening. Partly cloudy skies are then expected throughout the overnight hours of tonight.

Low temperatures will be around 20 Degrees. Winds will be West at around 10 mph.

Sunday: Sunny to partly sunny skies are expected throughout the day on Sunday. High temperatures will be around 35 Degrees. Winds will be North to Northwest at around 10 mph in the morning and South to Southeast at around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Some Light Snow May Occur During Late Sunday Night Into Monday Morning: While a significant snowstorm is not expected across the area, it appears that a storm system tracking to the south of New England may come close enough to give us some light snow late Sunday night into Monday morning.

It is expected that an area of low pressure will track off of the North Carolina coast by Sunday evening. This low pressure system will head towards the northeast as it’s guided by the southern branch of the jet stream.

What has changed over the past 12-24 hours or so is that even though the northern and southern branches of the jet stream probably will not fully phase, they have trended towards a scenario where the northern branch of the jet stream may be dynamic enough & dig far enough south to at least partially pull that low pressure system far enough north so that at least some light snow will occur across Western and Central Mass during late Sunday night and Monday morning.

Because of these changes in the track of this low pressure system, we are now going to have to keep a close eye on the possibility of the shield of steady snow pushing further north than what is currently forecast. At this time, it appears that the steady accumulating snow may push as far north as areas from southern Connecticut & far southern Rhode Island southward through New York City, Long Island, eastern Pennsylvania and much of New Jersey.

For our area to see enough snow accumulation to plow, we are going to have to see both the northern and southern branches of jet stream to fully phase causing that low pressure system to track much closer to Southern New England. At this point, I don’t see this happening, but it’s something that I will be keeping an eye on, just in case.

My Thinking Is That we’ll see intermittent very light snow across areas north of the Mass Pike late Sunday night into Monday morning with a dusting at most in terms of snow accumulation. For areas near and south of the Mass Pike, periods of light snow look possible late Sunday night into Monday morning that could lead to a dusting to perhaps up to one inch of snow accumulation.

Even though I’m not expecting really anything here across the area, I am still going to keep very close tabs on this storm, just in case we do see any more shifts northward in the track of the storm.