5 To 8 Inches Of Snow Accumulation Is Expected From Late This Afternoon Through Tonight Until Just Before Sunrise Monday Morning Across All Of Western & Central Mass

Overall there are minimal changes to the forecast that I sent out yesterday. This update is to let you know the latest concerning the upcoming snowfall.

One item that will need to be watched closely as we get into later this afternoon and this evening and that is the potential for a couple of bands of heavy to very heavy snow to develop. The biggest challenge, however, is trying to figure out where exactly these bands will set up. Current indications are that one band of heavy to very heavy snow might set up between 8-9 pm and midnight this evening right near and west of I-91 in Western Mass and a second heavy snow band setting up from about the Quabbin eastward through the Worcester Hills, the I-84 corridor, the Worcester Metro and along I-190. 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates are likely within these bands of heavy to very heavy snow. Additionally, these bands of heavy snow will be fairly convective in nature and because of this, don’t be surprised to see a flash of lightning or hear a rumble of thunder during the period of heavy to very heavy snow.

What Time Will The Storm Start? This is one part of the forecast that has changed some. It now appears that the snow will begin across Western Mass during the 3-4 pm time frame and then begin across Central Mass around the 4-5 pm time frame.

Heavy Snow Is Expected This Evening – Once the snow begins late this afternoon, it’ll gradually ramp up in intensity, so that by early this evening, it’ll be snowing at a moderate intensity across most areas. As I already mentioned, a period of heavy to very heavy snow looks quite possible, if not likely between 8-9 pm and midnight this evening in two areas – One is near and especially west of I-91 and the second from about the Quabbin eastward through the Worcester Hills, the I-84 corridor, the Worcester Metro & right along I-190. 1 to 2 inch per hour snow rates with perhaps a flash of lightning or a rumble of thunder can be expected between 8 pm and midnight.

Snow Lightens Up Dramatically Just After Midnight – The snow is expected to become light in intensity just after midnight tonight with this light snow continuing into the predawn hours of Monday morning.

What Time Will The Storm End? It looks like the snow will come to an end & we’ll be done by 3-4 am across Western Mass and by about 4-5 am Monday morning across Central Mass. All-in-all, this looks to be a barely 12 hour storm for most areas.

How Much Snow Accumulation Is Expected? I do think that we’re looking at a widespread 5 to 8 inch snowfall across all of Western and Central Mass. Not a big storm by any means (it never was expected to be a big storm), but it’ll be enough to lay down a decent snow cover for this upcoming week’s Arctic blast.

Expected Storm Impacts – I’m expecting that roads will be slick due to accumulating snow beginning late this afternoon and continuing through tonight. Also, the snow may accumulate rapidly on roads between 8 pm and midnight as we see those bands of heavy snow and because of this, you might want to delay any travel during that 8 pm and midnight time frame.

For those having to travel on Monday morning, road conditions should be improving rapidly as the snow will be done well before sunrise Monday morning. Just bundle up when going out anytime on Monday because it looks COLD with temperatures struggling to make it to 20 Degrees during the day on Monday.

The snow will likely start out as a wet snow late this afternoon and very early this evening, but will quickly become light and fluffy in nature by mid-evening and remain light and fluffy in nature right through and after the midnight hours of tonight.

Temperatures – Temperatures this afternoon will remain near 40 Degrees early this afternoon but will fall to between 30 and 35 Degrees by late this afternoon and early this evening. Temperatures will continue to fall tonight reaching 20 to 25 Degrees by midnight and reaching 10 to 15 Degrees by sunrise Monday morning. Temperatures during the day on Monday will struggle to reach 20 Degrees by afternoon.

Winds – Winds this afternoon will be North at 5 to 10 mph. Winds tonight will be North to Northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Winds on Monday will be West to Northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

A 4 To 8 Inch Snowfall Is Expected From Sunday Afternoon Through Sunday Night Across All Of Western & Central Mass

For The Rest Of This Afternoon & Tonight: A cold front is expected to push through the area late this afternoon into early this evening.

Widespread rain showers will overspread the entire area by about 3 pm this afternoon and then continue through the late afternoon and early evening hours. These rain showers will come to an end by about 9-10 pm this evening.

Once the cold front moves through, the winds will shift to the northwest and some breaks in the clouds can be expected by after midnight tonight.

Temperatures the rest of this afternoon will be around 40 Degrees. Low temperatures tonight will be near 30 Degrees.

Winds throughout the rest of this afternoon will be South at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Winds tonight will be Southwest at 5 to 10 mph before midnight and West to Northwest at 5 to 10 mph after midnight.

4 To 8 Inches Of Snow Accumulation Is Expected From Sunday Afternoon Through Sunday Night Across All Of Western & Central Mass: It now looks very likely that a widespread 4 to 8 inch snowfall can be expected across all of Western and Central Mass from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.

An area of low pressure riding along a frontal boundary will move to the area around Nantucket and the outer Cape during Sunday evening before heading northeastward towards Nova Scotia by late Sunday night.

Precipitation in the form of a rain-snow mix is expected to overspread Western Mass by about 1 pm or so Sunday afternoon. A rain-snow mix then looks to begin across Central Mass by about 2 pm or so Sunday afternoon.

This rain-snow will be very short-lived and it is likely to be snowing everywhere across Western and Central Mass by about the 3-4 pm time frame.

The snow is then expected to continue through the rest of the late afternoon hours of Sunday right through all of Sunday evening. It is expected that the snow will fall at a moderate to heavy intensity at times during Sunday evening.

During the after midnight hours of Sunday night, it looks likely that while light snow should continue, it will gradually taper off and end from southwest to northeast. All snow should be done by 4 am Monday morning across the entire area.

Temperatures are still expected to crash during Sunday evening as Arctic air pushes into the region. This means that wet surfaces from the initial rain-snow mix will flash freeze leading to the development of very icy conditions during Sunday evening. These very icy conditions will combine with the snow accumulating on top of the ice to lead to some extremely slick conditions throughout Sunday night.

My snowfall forecast for this storm can be found with the map attached to this post. Overall, I am expecting a 4 to 8 inch snowfall, but there is the possibility for localized amounts of up to 10 inches in areas that see persistent banding of moderate to heavy snow during Sunday evening.

Again, be aware that the snow will be accumulating on top of some very icy ground conditions leading to some potentially extremely slick travel and walking conditions throughout all of Sunday night. These very icy conditions will likely persist through much of Monday.

Temperatures on Sunday will reach 35 to 40 Degrees during the early afternoon hours. Temperatures will then crash to the 25 to 30 Degrees by late Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening and then continue to drop to near 20 Degrees by midnight reaching 10 to 15 Degrees by sunrise Monday morning.

Winds on Sunday will be North at 8 to 16 mph. Winds on Sunday night will be North to Northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Plowable Amounts Of Snow Are Likely From Sunday Afternoon Through Sunday Night Across All Of Western & Central Mass

For The Rest Of This Afternoon: An area of high pressure will continue to control the weather throughout the rest of this afternoon.

This means that lots of sunshine can be expected throughout the rest of this afternoon. Temperatures will be near 35 Degrees. Winds will be Northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

Tonight: Skies will start out clear this evening, but will become partly cloudy during the after midnight hours. Low temperatures will be between 20 and 25 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 8 to 16 mph.

Saturday: A cold front is expected to move through the area during the afternoon hours on Saturday.

Skies throughout the day on Saturday will be cloudy. In addition, widespread rain showers are expected to overspread the entire area by mid-afternoon and then continue through the late afternoon hours.

High temperatures will be near 45 Degrees. Winds will be South to Southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday Night: That cold front will push to the east during the evening with a drier northwesterly wind flow taking over by after midnight.

Any leftover rain showers will end during the early evening hours with some breaks in the clouds possible during the after midnight hours. Low temperatures will be between 30 and 35 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 10 to 20 mph before midnight and West to Northwest at 5 to 10 mph after midnight.

Plowable Amounts Of Snow Are Likely From Sunday Afternoon Through Sunday Night Across All Of Western & Central Mass: It is looking likely now that a plowable amount of snow will occur beginning on Sunday afternoon and continuing through Sunday night across the entire area. That said, there is uncertainty as to how close the low pressure system moving along a frontal boundary will track to our area.

The “goal posts” for the track of this storm seem to be from a storm that moves across eastern and southeastern Mass, which would lead to the most snow occurring across the northern Worcester Hills as well as across the middle and upper Pioneer Valley of Western Mass and the Berkshires to a storm that tracks well south and east of Nantucket, which would lead to most of the snow occurring over eastern and southeastern parts of Worcester County and much less as you head into Western Mass.

At this point, my thinking is for a storm that tracks near Nantucket during Sunday night before heading towards Nova Scotia by Monday morning.

My Current Forecast Based On My Analysis Is For rain or a rain-snow mix to begin across the entire area by early Sunday afternoon. Any rain to start with is expected to be quite brief and the rain or rain-snow mix will change to all snow by mid-afternoon. One area that the rain might hang on a little longer is across far eastern and across southeastern parts of Worcester County (I-495 and Route 146 corridors) where the colder air might take a little longer to move in. Even here though, the rain will change to all snow by about late Sunday afternoon.

The snow is then expected to continue throughout the night on Sunday night. In addition, the snow may be moderate to heavy in intensity at times, especially during the first half of Sunday night.

I also think that we’re probably going to see crashing temperatures during Sunday evening as some Arctic air pushes into the region. This means that wet surfaces from the initial rain or rain-snow mix will flash freeze leading to the development of very icy conditions during Sunday evening. These very icy conditions will combine with the snow accumulating on top of the ice to lead to some extremely slick conditions throughout Sunday night.

The snow is expected to come to an end just before sunrise Monday morning.

My snowfall forecast for this storm can be found with the map attached to this post. Again, be aware that the snow will be accumulating on top of some very icy ground conditions leading to some potentially extremely slick travel and walking conditions throughout all of Sunday night. These very icy conditions will likely persist through much of Monday.

Temperatures on Sunday will reach 35 to 40 Degrees during the early afternoon hours. Temperatures will then crash to the 25 to 30 Degrees by early Sunday evening and then continue to drop to near 20 Degrees by midnight reaching 10 to 15 Degrees by sunrise Monday morning.

Winds on Sunday will be North at 7 to 14 mph. Winds on Sunday night will be North to Northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

I will continue to keep very close tabs on this storm and will have many more updates as needed over the next couple of days or so.

The Coldest Temperatures Since Early February Of 2023 Are Expected During The First Half Of Next Week: The big weather story for much of next week will be the Arctic outbreak leading to the coldest temperatures since early February of 2023.

Monday will be partly sunny, very cold and windy with high temperatures between 15 and 20 Degrees. A North to northwest wind of 15 to 25 mph will produce wind chill temperatures of around zero throughout the day.

Monday night looks clear, very cold and windy with low temperatures near zero. Wind chill temperatures of minus 10 to minus 20 can be expected.

Tuesday is expected to be partly sunny, very cold and windy with high temperatures near 15 Degrees. Wind chill temperatures of zero to minus 10 can be expected throughout the day.

Tuesday night will be partly cloudy and very cold. Low temperatures will be near Zero.

Wednesday looks to be another very cold day under sunny skies. High temperatures will be between 15 and 20 Degrees.